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FK Jablonec vs Dynamo Kyiv — UEFA Europa League 2026

FK Jablonec
FK Jablonec
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dynamo Kyiv
Dynamo Kyiv
M. Travnik 81'
D. Hovorka 33'
D. Harmash 14'
V. Tsygankov 8'
10/4/2018UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 2Chance Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

FK Jablonec34%
×Draw25%
Dynamo Kyiv41%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Jablonec
1.34
Dynamo Kyiv
1.49

Dynamo Kyiv creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

creates per match

FK Jablonec
1.00
Dynamo Kyiv
1.38

allows per match

FK Jablonec
1.60
Dynamo Kyiv
1.69

finishing

FK Jablonec+0.00on par
Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Jablonec ↓

Dynamo Kyiv →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

FK Jablonec or draw
59%
FK Jablonec or Dynamo Kyiv
75%
Draw or Dynamo Kyiv
66%

Winning margin

FK Jablonec wins by 2+
15%
Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

FK Jablonec 1+ goals
74%
FK Jablonec 2+ goals
39%
FK Jablonec 3+ goals
15%
Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals
77%
Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals
44%
Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)
46%
Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Jablonec at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Dynamo Kyiv away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Jablonec attack 1.00 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.38 + FK Jablonec defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Jablonec scores more
34%
level
25%
Dynamo Kyiv scores more
41%

Dynamo Kyiv at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. TravnikFK JablonecFK Jablonec · M
8.3

Match Events

8'
V. Tsygankov↳ M. Moroziuk
14'
D. Harmash
18'
Tomas Holes
33'
D. Hovorka↳ M. Travnik
53'
Mykola Morozyuk
58'
Jakub Považanec
78'
D. Ikaunieks← J. Chramosta
79'
Vitaliy Buyalskyy
79'
V. Shepelev← V. Buyalskyy
81'
Josip Pivarić
81'
M. Travnik↳ L. Masopust
86'
V. Kubista← L. Masopust
90+2'
E. Sobol← V. Jovović

Possession

46%FK

Shots

15FK

Pass accuracy

49%FK

Statistics

FKDynamo
Overview
46%Possession54%
15Total Shots6
3Corners3
11Fouls16
Shots
15Total Shots6
4On Target5
9Off Target1
2Blocked0
7Inside Box3
8Outside Box3
Passing
46%Possession54%
401Total Passes468
274Accurate Passes327
68%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: FK Jablonec vs Dynamo Kyiv

FK Jablonec and Dynamo Kyiv drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa League on October 4, 2018.

Goals: V. Tsygankov (8'), D. Harmash (14'), D. Hovorka (33'), M. Travnik (81').

Dynamo Kyiv controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 15.

The match was played at Chance Arena in Jablonec.