Dynamo Kyiv 0–1 FK Jablonec: Result & Stats

Dynamo Kyiv

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FK Jablonec

M. Dolezal 10'

12/13/2018

UEFA Europa League · Group Stage - 6NSC Olimpiyskiy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dynamo Kyiv40%

×Draw28%

FK Jablonec32%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dynamo KyivExpected goals in this matchFK Jablonec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.09

Dynamo Kyiv

1.25

FK Jablonec

1.09

Dynamo Kyiv creates 15% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

0.69

creates per match

0.80

1.38

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Dynamo Kyiv

0.69

FK Jablonec

0.80

allows per match

Dynamo Kyiv

1.38

FK Jablonec

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dynamo Kyiv+0.00on par

FK Jablonec+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dynamo Kyiv ↓

FK Jablonec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Dynamo Kyiv or draw

68%

Dynamo Kyiv or FK Jablonec

72%

Draw or FK Jablonec

60%

Winning margin

Dynamo Kyiv wins by 2+

18%

FK Jablonec wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dynamo Kyiv 1+ goals

71%

Dynamo Kyiv 2+ goals

36%

Dynamo Kyiv 3+ goals

13%

FK Jablonec 1+ goals

66%

FK Jablonec 2+ goals

30%

FK Jablonec 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Dynamo Kyiv (draw refunded)

55%

FK Jablonec (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dynamo Kyiv at home — creates 0.69, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

FK Jablonec away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dynamo Kyiv attack 0.69 + FK Jablonec defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.25

FK Jablonec attack 0.80 + Dynamo Kyiv defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dynamo Kyiv scores more

40%

level

28%

FK Jablonec scores more

32%

Dynamo Kyiv at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dynamo Kyiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

V. Hruby

FK Jablonec · G

7.8

Match Events

10'

M. Dolezal↳ M. Travnik

13'

Martin Dolezal

28'

Tamás Kádár

60'

H. Tsitaishvili← M. Shaparenko

66'

M. Duelund← A. Besedin

70'

A. Acosta← J. Chramosta

76'

O. Andrievsky← M. Duelund

79'

E. Sobol← V. Jovović

88'

David Hovorka

89'

T. Břečka← M. Kratochvíl

90'

Benjamin Verbič

90'

Tomas Holes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

DynamoFK

Overview

66%Possession34%

17Total Shots8

6Corners5

13Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots8

5On Target5

7Off Target2

5Blocked1

9Inside Box6

8Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

638Total Passes320

533Accurate Passes221

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls10

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides5