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FK Crvena Zvezda vs Dinamo Vranje — Super Liga 2018

FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
7/20/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 1Stadion Rajko Mitić (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda82%
×Draw13%
Dinamo Vranje5%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.53
Dinamo Vranje
0.47

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 438% more chances

Season form · 148 home / 19 away

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
2.90
Dinamo Vranje
0.37

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda
0.57
Dinamo Vranje
2.16

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par
Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Dinamo Vranje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–16%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–09%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw
95%
FK Crvena Zvezda or Dinamo Vranje
87%
Draw or Dinamo Vranje
18%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
60%
Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
92%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
71%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
46%
Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
37%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
8%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
94%
Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.90, concedes 0.57 · 148 matches

Dinamo Vranje away — creates 0.37, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.90 + Dinamo Vranje defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.53

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.37 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 82%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
82%
level
13%
Dinamo Vranje scores more
5%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 82% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 82% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: FK Crvena Zvezda 3–0 Dinamo Vranje

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Dinamo Vranje 3-0 in Super Liga on July 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Rajko Mitić (Beograd).