Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Dinamo Vranje vs FK Crvena Zvezda — Super Liga 2018

Dinamo Vranje
Dinamo Vranje
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Crvena Zvezda
11/10/2018Super LigaSuper Liga · Round 16Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Dinamo Vranje15%
×Draw21%
FK Crvena Zvezda64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dinamo Vranje
0.85
FK Crvena Zvezda
1.98

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 133% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 142 away

creates per match

Dinamo Vranje
0.94
FK Crvena Zvezda
2.53

allows per match

Dinamo Vranje
1.44
FK Crvena Zvezda
0.76

finishing

Dinamo Vranje+0.00on par
FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dinamo Vranje ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–112%
0–212%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Dinamo Vranje or draw
36%
Dinamo Vranje or FK Crvena Zvezda
79%
Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda
85%

Winning margin

Dinamo Vranje wins by 2+
5%
FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Dinamo Vranje 1+ goals
57%
Dinamo Vranje 2+ goals
21%
Dinamo Vranje 3+ goals
5%
FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals
86%
FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals
59%
FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Dinamo Vranje (draw refunded)
19%
FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)
81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dinamo Vranje at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.44 · 18 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dinamo Vranje attack 0.94 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Dinamo Vranje defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Dinamo Vranje scores more
15%
level
21%
FK Crvena Zvezda scores more
64%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dinamo Vranje vs FK Crvena Zvezda

FK Crvena Zvezda beat Dinamo Vranje 3-0 in Super Liga on November 10, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Surdulica (Surdulica).