FK Crvena Zvezda 5–2 Cukaricki: Result & Stats

FK Crvena Zvezda

FT

5 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Cukaricki

12/22/2024

Super Liga · Round 20Stadion Rajko Mitić

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 144+ matches

FK Crvena Zvezda65%

×Draw20%

Cukaricki15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FK Crvena ZvezdaExpected goals in this matchCukaricki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

0.93

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.13

Cukaricki

0.93

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 129% more chances

Season form · 149 home / 144 away

2.91

creates per match

1.29

0.57

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.91

Cukaricki

1.29

allows per match

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.57

Cukaricki

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Crvena Zvezda ↓

Cukaricki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FK Crvena Zvezda or draw

85%

FK Crvena Zvezda or Cukaricki

80%

Draw or Cukaricki

35%

Winning margin

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

41%

Cukaricki wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

88%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

63%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

35%

Cukaricki 1+ goals

61%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

24%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

81%

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Crvena Zvezda at home — creates 2.91, concedes 0.57 · 149 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.91 + Cukaricki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 2.13

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

65%

level

20%

Cukaricki scores more

15%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff