Cukaricki 1–2 FK Crvena Zvezda: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

FK Crvena Zvezda

5/4/2026

Super Liga · Championship Group - 34Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 142+ matches

Cukaricki29%

×Draw24%

FK Crvena Zvezda48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchFK Crvena Zvezda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.71

Cukaricki

1.27

FK Crvena Zvezda

1.71

FK Crvena Zvezda creates 35% more chances

Season form · 145 home / 142 away

1.77

creates per match

2.53

0.89

allows per match

0.76

creates per match

Cukaricki

1.77

FK Crvena Zvezda

2.53

allows per match

Cukaricki

0.89

FK Crvena Zvezda

0.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par

FK Crvena Zvezda+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

FK Crvena Zvezda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

52%

Cukaricki or FK Crvena Zvezda

76%

Draw or FK Crvena Zvezda

71%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

12%

FK Crvena Zvezda wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

72%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

36%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

14%

FK Crvena Zvezda 1+ goals

82%

FK Crvena Zvezda 2+ goals

51%

FK Crvena Zvezda 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

37%

FK Crvena Zvezda (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 145 matches

FK Crvena Zvezda away — creates 2.53, concedes 0.76 · 142 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + FK Crvena Zvezda defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 1.27

FK Crvena Zvezda attack 2.53 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Cukaricki scores more

29%

level

24%

FK Crvena Zvezda scores more

48%

FK Crvena Zvezda at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "FK Crvena Zvezda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff