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FK Beograd vs Adelaide Olympic — South Australia NPL 2026

FK Beograd
FK Beograd
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
6/4/2022South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 13Frank Mitchell Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

FK Beograd47%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Olympic30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Beograd
1.74
Adelaide Olympic
1.34

FK Beograd creates 30% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 62 away

creates per match

FK Beograd
1.75
Adelaide Olympic
1.13

allows per match

FK Beograd
1.55
Adelaide Olympic
1.73

finishing

FK Beograd+0.00on par
Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Beograd ↓

Adelaide Olympic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

FK Beograd or draw
70%
FK Beograd or Adelaide Olympic
77%
Draw or Adelaide Olympic
53%

Winning margin

FK Beograd wins by 2+
25%
Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Beograd 1+ goals
82%
FK Beograd 2+ goals
52%
FK Beograd 3+ goals
25%
Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
74%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
39%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

FK Beograd (draw refunded)
61%
Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Beograd at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.55 · 53 matches

Adelaide Olympic away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.73 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Beograd attack 1.75 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.74

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.13 + FK Beograd defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

FK Beograd scores more
47%
level
23%
Adelaide Olympic scores more
30%

FK Beograd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "FK Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Beograd vs Adelaide Olympic

FK Beograd and Adelaide Olympic drew 1-1 in South Australia NPL on June 4, 2022.

The match was played at Frank Mitchell Park in Adelaide.