Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Adelaide Olympic vs FK Beograd — South Australia NPL 2026

Adelaide Olympic
Adelaide Olympic
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FK Beograd
FK Beograd
8/5/2023South Australia NPLSouth Australia NPL · Round 21Apex Football Centre Pitch 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Adelaide Olympic39%
×Draw22%
FK Beograd39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Adelaide Olympic
1.79
FK Beograd
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 53 away

creates per match

Adelaide Olympic
1.89
FK Beograd
1.68

allows per match

Adelaide Olympic
1.87
FK Beograd
1.70

finishing

Adelaide Olympic+0.00on par
FK Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Olympic ↓

FK Beograd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Adelaide Olympic or draw
61%
Adelaide Olympic or FK Beograd
78%
Draw or FK Beograd
61%

Winning margin

Adelaide Olympic wins by 2+
20%
FK Beograd wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Adelaide Olympic 1+ goals
83%
Adelaide Olympic 2+ goals
53%
Adelaide Olympic 3+ goals
26%
FK Beograd 1+ goals
83%
FK Beograd 2+ goals
53%
FK Beograd 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Olympic (draw refunded)
51%
FK Beograd (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Olympic at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.87 · 63 matches

FK Beograd away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.70 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Olympic attack 1.89 + FK Beograd defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.79

FK Beograd attack 1.68 + Adelaide Olympic defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Adelaide Olympic scores more
39%
level
22%
FK Beograd scores more
39%

Adelaide Olympic at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Adelaide Olympic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Adelaide Olympic vs FK Beograd

Adelaide Olympic and FK Beograd drew 2-2 in South Australia NPL on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Apex Football Centre Pitch 1 in Adelaide.