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FK Becej vs Borac Cacak — Prva Liga 2018

FK Becej
FK Becej
FT
0 – 0
Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
3/16/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 27Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FK Becej44%
×Draw27%
Borac Cacak29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Becej
1.38
Borac Cacak
1.06

FK Becej creates 30% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 74 away

creates per match

FK Becej
1.26
Borac Cacak
1.01

allows per match

FK Becej
1.11
Borac Cacak
1.50

finishing

FK Becej+0.00on par
Borac Cacak+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Becej ↓

Borac Cacak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Becej or draw
71%
FK Becej or Borac Cacak
73%
Draw or Borac Cacak
56%

Winning margin

FK Becej wins by 2+
21%
Borac Cacak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

FK Becej 1+ goals
75%
FK Becej 2+ goals
40%
FK Becej 3+ goals
16%
Borac Cacak 1+ goals
65%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
29%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

FK Becej (draw refunded)
60%
Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Becej at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Borac Cacak away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.50 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Becej attack 1.26 + Borac Cacak defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.38

Borac Cacak attack 1.01 + FK Becej defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

FK Becej scores more
44%
level
27%
Borac Cacak scores more
29%

FK Becej at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Becej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Becej vs Borac Cacak

FK Becej and Borac Cacak drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on March 16, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion kraj Tise (Bečej).