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Borac Cacak vs FK Becej — Prva Liga 2018

Borac Cacak
Borac Cacak
FT
1 – 1
FK Becej
FK Becej
10/20/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 12Stadion Borca kraj Morave (Čačak)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Borac Cacak45%
×Draw29%
FK Becej26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Cacak
1.23
FK Becej
0.85

Borac Cacak creates 45% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 18 away

creates per match

Borac Cacak
1.18
FK Becej
0.83

allows per match

Borac Cacak
0.88
FK Becej
1.28

finishing

Borac Cacak+0.00on par
FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Cacak ↓

FK Becej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
34%66%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Borac Cacak or draw
74%
Borac Cacak or FK Becej
71%
Draw or FK Becej
55%

Winning margin

Borac Cacak wins by 2+
20%
FK Becej wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Borac Cacak 1+ goals
71%
Borac Cacak 2+ goals
35%
Borac Cacak 3+ goals
13%
FK Becej 1+ goals
57%
FK Becej 2+ goals
21%
FK Becej 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Borac Cacak (draw refunded)
64%
FK Becej (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Cacak at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.88 · 73 matches

FK Becej away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Cacak attack 1.18 + FK Becej defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

FK Becej attack 0.83 + Borac Cacak defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Borac Cacak scores more
45%
level
29%
FK Becej scores more
26%

Borac Cacak at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Borac Cacak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Cacak vs FK Becej

Borac Cacak and FK Becej drew 1-1 in Prva Liga on October 20, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Borca kraj Morave (Čačak).