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FK Aksu vs FC Astana — Premier League 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
CANC
00:00
FC Astana
FC Astana
7/13/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Ortalyq stadıon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FK Aksu33%
×Draw27%
FC Astana40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
1.15
FC Astana
1.29

FC Astana creates 12% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 93 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
1.38
FC Astana
1.45

allows per match

FK Aksu
1.12
FC Astana
0.92

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
FC Astana+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

FC Astana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
60%
FK Aksu or FC Astana
73%
Draw or FC Astana
67%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
13%
FC Astana wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
68%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
32%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
11%
FC Astana 1+ goals
72%
FC Astana 2+ goals
37%
FC Astana 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
45%
FC Astana (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.12 · 26 matches

FC Astana away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 1.38 + FC Astana defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.15

FC Astana attack 1.45 + FK Aksu defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

FK Aksu scores more
33%
level
27%
FC Astana scores more
40%

FC Astana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FK Aksu vs FC Astana — Match Preview

FK Aksu face FC Astana on July 13, 2024 in this Premier League fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

FK Aksu host FC Astana at Ortalyq stadıon.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.