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FC Astana vs FK Aksu — Premier League 2019

FC Astana
FC Astana
CANC
00:00
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
6/1/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Sportivnyy Kompleks Kaznu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

FC Astana69%
×Draw19%
FK Aksu13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Astana
2.23
FK Aksu
0.84

FC Astana creates 165% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 26 away

creates per match

FC Astana
2.42
FK Aksu
0.73

allows per match

FC Astana
0.96
FK Aksu
2.04

finishing

FC Astana+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Astana ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

FC Astana or draw
87%
FC Astana or FK Aksu
81%
Draw or FK Aksu
31%

Winning margin

FC Astana wins by 2+
45%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

FC Astana 1+ goals
89%
FC Astana 2+ goals
65%
FC Astana 3+ goals
38%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
57%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
21%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

FC Astana (draw refunded)
84%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Astana at home — creates 2.42, concedes 0.96 · 97 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.04 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Astana attack 2.42 + FK Aksu defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.23

FK Aksu attack 0.73 + FC Astana defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

FC Astana scores more
69%
level
19%
FK Aksu scores more
13%

FC Astana at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "FC Astana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: FC Astana host FK Aksu

June 1, 2024: FC Astana take on FK Aksu in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

FC Astana host FK Aksu at Sportivnyy Kompleks Kaznu.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.