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FK Aksu vs Baykonur — 1. Division 2019

FK Aksu
FK Aksu
FT
7 – 1
Baykonur
Baykonur
9/11/20211. Division1. Division · Round 16Ortalıq Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

FK Aksu78%
×Draw14%
Baykonur9%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Aksu
2.84
Baykonur
0.86

FK Aksu creates 230% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 43 away

creates per match

FK Aksu
2.64
Baykonur
1.00

allows per match

FK Aksu
0.73
Baykonur
3.05

finishing

FK Aksu+0.00on par
Baykonur+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Aksu ↓

Baykonur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

FK Aksu or draw
91%
FK Aksu or Baykonur
86%
Draw or Baykonur
22%

Winning margin

FK Aksu wins by 2+
57%
Baykonur wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

FK Aksu 1+ goals
94%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
77%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
53%
Baykonur 1+ goals
58%
Baykonur 2+ goals
21%
Baykonur 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

FK Aksu (draw refunded)
90%
Baykonur (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Aksu at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Baykonur away — creates 1.00, concedes 3.05 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Aksu attack 2.64 + Baykonur defence 3.05 → ÷2 → 2.84

Baykonur attack 1.00 + FK Aksu defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

FK Aksu scores more
78%
level
14%
Baykonur scores more
9%

FK Aksu at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FK Aksu vs Baykonur

FK Aksu beat Baykonur 7-1 in 1. Division on September 11, 2021.

The match was played at Ortalıq Stadion in Pavlodar.