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Baykonur vs FK Aksu — 1. Division 2019

Baykonur
Baykonur
FT
1 – 0
FK Aksu
FK Aksu
5/17/20211. Division1. Division · Round 6Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Baykonur19%
×Draw21%
FK Aksu60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baykonur
1.04
FK Aksu
2.04

FK Aksu creates 96% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 11 away

creates per match

Baykonur
1.09
FK Aksu
2.18

allows per match

Baykonur
1.91
FK Aksu
1.00

finishing

Baykonur+0.00on par
FK Aksu+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baykonur ↓

FK Aksu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Baykonur or draw
40%
Baykonur or FK Aksu
79%
Draw or FK Aksu
81%

Winning margin

Baykonur wins by 2+
7%
FK Aksu wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Baykonur 1+ goals
65%
Baykonur 2+ goals
28%
Baykonur 3+ goals
9%
FK Aksu 1+ goals
87%
FK Aksu 2+ goals
60%
FK Aksu 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Baykonur (draw refunded)
24%
FK Aksu (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baykonur at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.91 · 43 matches

FK Aksu away — creates 2.18, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baykonur attack 1.09 + FK Aksu defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

FK Aksu attack 2.18 + Baykonur defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Baykonur scores more
19%
level
21%
FK Aksu scores more
60%

FK Aksu at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "FK Aksu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baykonur vs FK Aksu

Baykonur beat FK Aksu 1-0 in 1. Division on May 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion im. Gany Muratbaeva in Kyzylorda.