Fjolnir 2–1 Dalvík / Reynir: Result & Stats

Fjolnir

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dalvík / Reynir

5/9/2026

2. Deild · Round 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Fjolnir52%

×Draw20%

Dalvík / Reynir28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FjolnirExpected goals in this matchDalvík / Reynir

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.24

1.60

Fjolnir

2.24

Dalvík / Reynir

1.60

Fjolnir creates 40% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

2.67

creates per match

1.71

1.50

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Fjolnir

2.67

Dalvík / Reynir

1.71

allows per match

Fjolnir

1.50

Dalvík / Reynir

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fjolnir+0.00on par

Dalvík / Reynir+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fjolnir ↓

Dalvík / Reynir →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Fjolnir or draw

72%

Fjolnir or Dalvík / Reynir

80%

Draw or Dalvík / Reynir

48%

Winning margin

Fjolnir wins by 2+

31%

Dalvík / Reynir wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Fjolnir 1+ goals

89%

Fjolnir 2+ goals

65%

Fjolnir 3+ goals

38%

Dalvík / Reynir 1+ goals

80%

Dalvík / Reynir 2+ goals

47%

Dalvík / Reynir 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Fjolnir (draw refunded)

65%

Dalvík / Reynir (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fjolnir at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Dalvík / Reynir away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.81 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fjolnir attack 2.67 + Dalvík / Reynir defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 2.24

Dalvík / Reynir attack 1.71 + Fjolnir defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Fjolnir scores more

52%

level

20%

Dalvík / Reynir scores more

28%

Fjolnir at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fjolnir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff