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Dalvík / Reynir vs Fjolnir — 2. Deild 2025

Dalvík / Reynir
Dalvík / Reynir
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Fjolnir
Fjolnir
A. Solvason 88'
Unknown 80', 58', 50', 33'
7/12/20262. Deild2. Deild · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dalvík / Reynir46%
×Draw21%
Fjolnir32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dalvík / Reynir
2.04
Fjolnir
1.69

Dalvík / Reynir creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 6 away

creates per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.75
Fjolnir
2.33

allows per match

Dalvík / Reynir
1.05
Fjolnir
2.33

finishing

Dalvík / Reynir+0.00on par
Fjolnir+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dalvík / Reynir ↓

Fjolnir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Dalvík / Reynir or draw
68%
Dalvík / Reynir or Fjolnir
79%
Draw or Fjolnir
54%

Winning margin

Dalvík / Reynir wins by 2+
26%
Fjolnir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dalvík / Reynir 1+ goals
87%
Dalvík / Reynir 2+ goals
60%
Dalvík / Reynir 3+ goals
33%
Fjolnir 1+ goals
82%
Fjolnir 2+ goals
50%
Fjolnir 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Dalvík / Reynir (draw refunded)
59%
Fjolnir (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dalvík / Reynir at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.05 · 20 matches

Fjolnir away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dalvík / Reynir attack 1.75 + Fjolnir defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.04

Fjolnir attack 2.33 + Dalvík / Reynir defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Dalvík / Reynir scores more
46%
level
21%
Fjolnir scores more
32%

Dalvík / Reynir at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Dalvík / Reynir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
50'
58'
80'
88'
A. Solvason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Deild: Dalvík / Reynir 1–4 Fjolnir

Fjolnir beat Dalvík / Reynir 4-1 in 2. Deild on July 12, 2026.

Goals: ? (33', 50', 58', 80'), A. Solvason (88').