First Vienna 1–2 Traiskirchen: Result & Stats

First Vienna

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Traiskirchen

M. Konrad 87'

P. Haas 70', 31'

4/12/2022

Regionalliga - Ost · Ost - 16Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

First Vienna51%

×Draw22%

Traiskirchen27%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

First ViennaExpected goals in this matchTraiskirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

1.36

First Vienna

1.95

Traiskirchen

1.36

First Vienna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 99 away

2.20

creates per match

1.73

1.00

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

First Vienna

2.20

Traiskirchen

1.73

allows per match

First Vienna

1.00

Traiskirchen

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par

Traiskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Traiskirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw

73%

First Vienna or Traiskirchen

78%

Draw or Traiskirchen

49%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+

29%

Traiskirchen wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals

86%

First Vienna 2+ goals

58%

First Vienna 3+ goals

31%

Traiskirchen 1+ goals

74%

Traiskirchen 2+ goals

39%

Traiskirchen 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)

66%

Traiskirchen (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Traiskirchen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 2.20 + Traiskirchen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Traiskirchen attack 1.73 + First Vienna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

First Vienna scores more

51%

level

22%

Traiskirchen scores more

27%

First Vienna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

P. Haas

46'

M. Helleparth← B. Budimir

46'

O. Mohr← N. Szerencsi

53'

S. Varga← B. Mustafic

54'

B. Luxbacher← D. Luxbacher

54'

L. Edelhofer← J. Leňko

54'

68'

70'

73'

73'

78'

87'

First

Traiskirchen

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: A. Zellhofer

54'▲B. Luxbacher←▼D. Luxbacher

54'▲L. Edelhofer←▼J. Leňko

54'▲M. Konrad←▼M. Toth

73'▲D. Alar←▼T. Šimkovič

73'▲O. Kazan←▼A. Lukse

First Vienna substitutes

LuxbacherEdelhoferKonradAlarKazanSzotkowski

Manager: Z. Radovic

46'▲M. Helleparth←▼B. Budimir

46'▲O. Mohr←▼N. Szerencsi

53'▲S. Varga←▼B. Mustafic

68'▲M. Trost←▼E. Bajrami

78'▲A. Prenqi←▼S. Oppong

Traiskirchen substitutes

HelleparthMohrVargaTrostPrenqiSabani

Match Recap: First Vienna vs Traiskirchen

Traiskirchen beat First Vienna 2-1 in Regionalliga - Ost on April 12, 2022.

Goals: P. Haas (31', 70'), M. Konrad (87').

The match was played at Naturarena Hohe Warte in Wien.

First Vienna vs Traiskirchen — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: First Vienna vs Traiskirchen