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First Vienna vs Traiskirchen — Regionalliga - Ost 2018

First Vienna
First Vienna
CANC
00:00
Traiskirchen
Traiskirchen
3/2/2018Regionalliga - OstRegionalliga - Ost · Round 20Care-Energy Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

First Vienna51%
×Draw22%
Traiskirchen27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

First Vienna
1.95
Traiskirchen
1.36

First Vienna creates 43% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 99 away

creates per match

First Vienna
2.20
Traiskirchen
1.73

allows per match

First Vienna
1.00
Traiskirchen
1.69

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par
Traiskirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

Traiskirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw
73%
First Vienna or Traiskirchen
78%
Draw or Traiskirchen
49%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+
29%
Traiskirchen wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals
86%
First Vienna 2+ goals
58%
First Vienna 3+ goals
31%
Traiskirchen 1+ goals
74%
Traiskirchen 2+ goals
39%
Traiskirchen 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)
66%
Traiskirchen (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 2.20, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

Traiskirchen away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.69 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 2.20 + Traiskirchen defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.95

Traiskirchen attack 1.73 + First Vienna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

First Vienna scores more
51%
level
22%
Traiskirchen scores more
27%

First Vienna at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: First Vienna host Traiskirchen

March 2, 2018: First Vienna take on Traiskirchen in Regionalliga - Ost. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

First Vienna host Traiskirchen at Care-Energy Naturarena Hohe Warte.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.