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First Vienna vs ASV 13 — Landesliga - Wien 2019

First Vienna
First Vienna
FT
7 – 0
ASV 13
ASV 13
10/21/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 6Naturarena Hohe Warte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

First Vienna81%
×Draw11%
ASV 137%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

First Vienna
3.34
ASV 13
0.95

First Vienna creates 252% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 59 away

creates per match

First Vienna
3.71
ASV 13
1.25

allows per match

First Vienna
0.64
ASV 13
2.98

finishing

First Vienna+0.00on par
ASV 13+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

First Vienna ↓

ASV 13 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–15%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–19%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–17%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (9%) · grid covers 80% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

First Vienna or draw
93%
First Vienna or ASV 13
89%
Draw or ASV 13
19%

Winning margin

First Vienna wins by 2+
64%
ASV 13 wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

First Vienna 1+ goals
96%
First Vienna 2+ goals
84%
First Vienna 3+ goals
63%
ASV 13 1+ goals
61%
ASV 13 2+ goals
25%
ASV 13 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

First Vienna (draw refunded)
92%
ASV 13 (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

First Vienna at home — creates 3.71, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

ASV 13 away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

First Vienna attack 3.71 + ASV 13 defence 2.98 → ÷2 → 3.34

ASV 13 attack 1.25 + First Vienna defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

First Vienna scores more
81%
level
11%
ASV 13 scores more
7%

First Vienna at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: First Vienna vs ASV 13

First Vienna beat ASV 13 7-0 in Landesliga - Wien on October 21, 2020.

The match was played at Naturarena Hohe Warte in Wien.