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ASV 13 vs First Vienna — Landesliga - Wien 2019

ASV 13
ASV 13
CANC
21:00
First Vienna
First Vienna
6/1/2020Landesliga - WienLandesliga - Wien · Wien - 28Sportplatz ASV 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

ASV 1315%
×Draw18%
First Vienna67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ASV 13
1.08
First Vienna
2.45

First Vienna creates 127% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 13 away

creates per match

ASV 13
1.48
First Vienna
2.69

allows per match

ASV 13
2.21
First Vienna
0.69

finishing

ASV 13+0.00on par
First Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ASV 13 ↓

First Vienna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

ASV 13 or draw
33%
ASV 13 or First Vienna
82%
Draw or First Vienna
85%

Winning margin

ASV 13 wins by 2+
5%
First Vienna wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

ASV 13 1+ goals
66%
ASV 13 2+ goals
29%
ASV 13 3+ goals
10%
First Vienna 1+ goals
91%
First Vienna 2+ goals
70%
First Vienna 3+ goals
44%

Draw no bet

ASV 13 (draw refunded)
18%
First Vienna (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ASV 13 at home — creates 1.48, concedes 2.21 · 58 matches

First Vienna away — creates 2.69, concedes 0.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ASV 13 attack 1.48 + First Vienna defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.08

First Vienna attack 2.69 + ASV 13 defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

ASV 13 scores more
15%
level
18%
First Vienna scores more
67%

First Vienna at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "First Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ASV 13 vs First Vienna — Match Preview

ASV 13 face First Vienna on June 1, 2020 in this Landesliga - Wien fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

ASV 13 host First Vienna at Sportplatz ASV 13.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.