Fiorentina 2–2 Ferencvarosi TC: Result & Stats

Fiorentina

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ferencvarosi TC

10/5/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 2Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Fiorentina35%

×Draw23%

Ferencvarosi TC42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchFerencvarosi TC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.75

Fiorentina

1.56

Ferencvarosi TC

1.75

Ferencvarosi TC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 7 away

2.41

creates per match

2.29

1.22

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Fiorentina

2.41

Ferencvarosi TC

2.29

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.22

Ferencvarosi TC

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

58%

Fiorentina or Ferencvarosi TC

77%

Draw or Ferencvarosi TC

65%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

17%

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

79%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

46%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

21%

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

83%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

52%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

25%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

45%

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.22 · 27 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 2.41 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.29 + Fiorentina defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fiorentina scores more

35%

level

23%

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

42%

Ferencvarosi TC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff