Ferencvarosi TC 1–1 Fiorentina: Result & Stats

Ferencvarosi TC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fiorentina

12/14/2023

UEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 6Groupama Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Ferencvarosi TC44%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ferencvarosi TCExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.28

Ferencvarosi TC

1.57

Fiorentina

1.28

Ferencvarosi TC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 27 away

2.00

creates per match

1.85

0.71

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Ferencvarosi TC

2.00

Fiorentina

1.85

allows per match

Ferencvarosi TC

0.71

Fiorentina

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferencvarosi TC ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ferencvarosi TC or draw

69%

Ferencvarosi TC or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

56%

Winning margin

Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+

22%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals

79%

Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals

46%

Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals

21%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

72%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

37%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)

59%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferencvarosi TC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.00 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.57

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ferencvarosi TC scores more

44%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

31%

Ferencvarosi TC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff