Fiorentina 1–2 Como: Result & Stats | Serie A

Fiorentina

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Como

R. Mandragora 6'

J. Addai 90'

M. O. Kempf 65'

9/21/2025

Serie A · Round 4Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

Fiorentina42%

×Draw27%

Como31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FiorentinaExpected goals in this matchComo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.11

Fiorentina

1.35

Como

1.11

Fiorentina creates 22% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 25 away

1.70

creates per match

1.15

1.08

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Fiorentina

1.70

Como

1.15

allows per match

Fiorentina

1.08

Como

1.00

-0.50scores less than expected

finishing

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

Fiorentina-0.50scores less

Como+0.41scores more

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Como →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw

69%

Fiorentina or Como

73%

Draw or Como

58%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+

20%

Como wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals

74%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

39%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

15%

Como 1+ goals

67%

Como 2+ goals

30%

Como 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

58%

Como (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.08 · 25 matches

Como away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.00 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.70 + Como defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.35

Como attack 1.15 + Fiorentina defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Fiorentina scores more

42%

level

27%

Como scores more

31%

Fiorentina at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

R. Mandragora

7'

Mërgim Vojvoda

22'

N. Fortini← T. Lamptey

30'

Marin Pongračić

45+6'

Máximo PerronePenalty cancelled

46'

J. Rodriguez← M. Vojvoda

50'

Sergi Roberto

61'

A. Douvikas← A. Morata

61'

J. Addai← N. Kuhn

62'

S. Sohm← J. Fazzini

62'

N. Fagioli← R. Mandragora

65'

67'

77'

77'

78'

82'

88'

89'

90+6'

E. Goldaniga← S. Roberto

90'

J. Addai↳ N. Paz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FiorentinaComo

Overview

39%Possession61%

8Total Shots19

0.49Expected Goals (xG)1.25

2Corners6

16Fouls19

Shots

8Total Shots19

1On Target7

4Off Target9

3Blocked3

4Inside Box10

4Outside Box9

Passing

39%Possession61%

313Total Passes502

241Accurate Passes426

77%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves0

-0.56Goals Prevented-0.56

Discipline

16Fouls19

4Yellow Cards3

2Offsides2

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–2 Como

Como beat Fiorentina 2-1 in Serie A on September 21, 2025.

Goals: R. Mandragora (6'), M. O. Kempf (65'), J. Addai (90').

Como controlled possession (61%) and registered 19 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Florence.

Fiorentina vs Como — Serie A 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Fiorentina 1–2 Como