Como 0–2 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Como

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Fiorentina

11/24/2024

Serie A · Round 13Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Como53%

×Draw25%

Fiorentina23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ComoExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.99

Como

1.65

Fiorentina

0.99

Como creates 67% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 25 away

1.85

creates per match

1.11

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Como

1.85

Fiorentina

1.11

allows per match

Como

0.86

Fiorentina

1.44

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.05on par

finishing

Como-0.07on par

Fiorentina+0.05on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Como ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Como or draw

77%

Como or Fiorentina

75%

Draw or Fiorentina

47%

Winning margin

Como wins by 2+

28%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Como 1+ goals

81%

Como 2+ goals

49%

Como 3+ goals

23%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

63%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

26%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Como (draw refunded)

70%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Como at home — creates 1.85, concedes 0.86 · 23 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.44 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Como attack 1.85 + Fiorentina defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.65

Fiorentina attack 1.11 + Como defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Como scores more

53%

level

25%

Fiorentina scores more

23%

Como at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Como will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff