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Fiorentina vs Benevento — Serie A 2018

Fiorentina
Fiorentina
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Benevento
Benevento
11/22/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 8Stadio Artemio Franchi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Fiorentina51%
×Draw25%
Benevento24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fiorentina
1.64
Benevento
1.04

Fiorentina creates 58% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 23 away

creates per match

Fiorentina
1.44
Benevento
0.96

allows per match

Fiorentina
1.11
Benevento
1.83

finishing

Fiorentina+0.00on par
Benevento+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fiorentina ↓

Benevento →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Fiorentina or draw
76%
Fiorentina or Benevento
75%
Draw or Benevento
49%

Winning margin

Fiorentina wins by 2+
27%
Benevento wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Fiorentina 1+ goals
81%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
49%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
23%
Benevento 1+ goals
65%
Benevento 2+ goals
28%
Benevento 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Fiorentina (draw refunded)
68%
Benevento (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fiorentina at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.11 · 135 matches

Benevento away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.83 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fiorentina attack 1.44 + Benevento defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.64

Benevento attack 0.96 + Fiorentina defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fiorentina scores more
51%
level
25%
Benevento scores more
24%

Fiorentina at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Fiorentina 0–1 Benevento

Benevento beat Fiorentina 1-0 in Serie A on November 22, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Firenze.