Benevento 1–4 Fiorentina: Result & Stats | Serie A

Benevento

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Fiorentina

3/13/2021

Serie A · Round 27Stadio Ciro Vigorito

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Benevento28%

×Draw24%

Fiorentina48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BeneventoExpected goals in this matchFiorentina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.67

Benevento

1.23

Fiorentina

1.67

Fiorentina creates 36% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 136 away

1.04

creates per match

1.24

2.09

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Benevento

1.04

Fiorentina

1.24

allows per match

Benevento

2.09

Fiorentina

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benevento+0.00on par

Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benevento ↓

Fiorentina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Benevento or draw

52%

Benevento or Fiorentina

76%

Draw or Fiorentina

72%

Winning margin

Benevento wins by 2+

12%

Fiorentina wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Benevento 1+ goals

71%

Benevento 2+ goals

35%

Benevento 3+ goals

13%

Fiorentina 1+ goals

81%

Fiorentina 2+ goals

50%

Fiorentina 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Benevento (draw refunded)

37%

Fiorentina (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benevento at home — creates 1.04, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.43 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benevento attack 1.04 + Fiorentina defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Fiorentina attack 1.24 + Benevento defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Benevento scores more

28%

level

24%

Fiorentina scores more

48%

Fiorentina at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Fiorentina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff