Finnentrop / Bamenohl 6–0 Delbrücker SC

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

FT

6 – 0

HT: 4 – 0

Delbrücker SC

12/11/2022

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 17Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl56%

×Draw19%

Delbrücker SC25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finnentrop / BamenohlExpected goals in this matchDelbrücker SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.42

1.57

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.42

Delbrücker SC

1.57

Finnentrop / Bamenohl creates 54% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 17 away

2.08

creates per match

1.41

1.73

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.08

Delbrücker SC

1.41

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.73

Delbrücker SC

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Delbrücker SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw

75%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Delbrücker SC

81%

Draw or Delbrücker SC

44%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+

35%

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals

91%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals

69%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals

43%

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

79%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

46%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)

69%

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Delbrücker SC away — creates 1.41, concedes 2.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Delbrücker SC defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.42

Delbrücker SC attack 1.41 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more

56%

level

19%

Delbrücker SC scores more

25%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff