Delbrücker SC 4–1 Finnentrop / Bamenohl

Delbrücker SC

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

5/29/2023

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 34AM-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Delbrücker SC50%

×Draw22%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Delbrücker SCExpected goals in this matchFinnentrop / Bamenohl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.91

1.38

Delbrücker SC

1.91

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.38

Delbrücker SC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 89 away

1.35

creates per match

1.35

1.41

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Delbrücker SC

1.35

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.35

allows per match

Delbrücker SC

1.41

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Delbrücker SC+0.00on par

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delbrücker SC ↓

Finnentrop / Bamenohl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Delbrücker SC or draw

72%

Delbrücker SC or Finnentrop / Bamenohl

78%

Draw or Finnentrop / Bamenohl

50%

Winning margin

Delbrücker SC wins by 2+

28%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Delbrücker SC 1+ goals

85%

Delbrücker SC 2+ goals

57%

Delbrücker SC 3+ goals

30%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals

75%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals

40%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Delbrücker SC (draw refunded)

64%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delbrücker SC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delbrücker SC attack 1.35 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.91

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 1.35 + Delbrücker SC defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Delbrücker SC scores more

50%

level

22%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more

28%

Delbrücker SC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Delbrücker SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff