Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3–1 Concordia Wiemelhausen

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Concordia Wiemelhausen

9/29/2024

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 8Sportplatz Bamenohl

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl63%

×Draw17%

Concordia Wiemelhausen19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Finnentrop / BamenohlExpected goals in this matchConcordia Wiemelhausen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.76

1.50

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.76

Concordia Wiemelhausen

1.50

Finnentrop / Bamenohl creates 84% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 18 away

2.08

creates per match

1.28

1.73

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.08

Concordia Wiemelhausen

1.28

allows per match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.73

Concordia Wiemelhausen

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Finnentrop / Bamenohl ↓

Concordia Wiemelhausen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

61%39%4.5

41%59%

Double chance

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or draw

81%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl or Concordia Wiemelhausen

83%

Draw or Concordia Wiemelhausen

37%

Winning margin

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+

43%

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals

94%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals

76%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals

51%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals

78%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals

44%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)

77%

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.73 · 90 matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen away — creates 1.28, concedes 3.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 2.08 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.76

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 1.28 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more

63%

level

17%

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more

19%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Finnentrop / Bamenohl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff