Concordia Wiemelhausen 0–2 Finnentrop / Bamenohl

Concordia Wiemelhausen

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

3/23/2025

Oberliga - Westfalen · Westfalen - 27Sportpark Concordia Wiemelhausen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Concordia Wiemelhausen46%

×Draw20%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Concordia WiemelhausenExpected goals in this matchFinnentrop / Bamenohl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.91

Concordia Wiemelhausen

2.26

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.91

Concordia Wiemelhausen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 89 away

2.05

creates per match

1.35

2.47

allows per match

2.47

creates per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen

2.05

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

1.35

allows per match

Concordia Wiemelhausen

2.47

Finnentrop / Bamenohl

2.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Concordia Wiemelhausen+0.00on par

Finnentrop / Bamenohl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes76
No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Concordia Wiemelhausen ↓

Finnentrop / Bamenohl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Concordia Wiemelhausen or draw

67%

Concordia Wiemelhausen or Finnentrop / Bamenohl

80%

Draw or Finnentrop / Bamenohl

54%

Winning margin

Concordia Wiemelhausen wins by 2+

27%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Concordia Wiemelhausen 1+ goals

89%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 2+ goals

66%

Concordia Wiemelhausen 3+ goals

39%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 1+ goals

85%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 2+ goals

57%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Concordia Wiemelhausen (draw refunded)

58%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Concordia Wiemelhausen at home — creates 2.05, concedes 2.47 · 19 matches

Finnentrop / Bamenohl away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.47 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Concordia Wiemelhausen attack 2.05 + Finnentrop / Bamenohl defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 2.26

Finnentrop / Bamenohl attack 1.35 + Concordia Wiemelhausen defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Concordia Wiemelhausen scores more

46%

level

20%

Finnentrop / Bamenohl scores more

33%

Concordia Wiemelhausen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Concordia Wiemelhausen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff