Figueres 0–0 San Cristóbal: Result & Stats

Figueres

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Cristóbal

3/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 27Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Figueres36%

×Draw29%

San Cristóbal35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueresExpected goals in this matchSan Cristóbal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.07

Figueres

1.09

San Cristóbal

1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 108 away

1.04

creates per match

0.78

1.36

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Figueres

1.04

San Cristóbal

0.78

allows per match

Figueres

1.36

San Cristóbal

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par

San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

San Cristóbal →

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Figueres or draw

65%

Figueres or San Cristóbal

71%

Draw or San Cristóbal

64%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+

14%

San Cristóbal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals

66%

Figueres 2+ goals

30%

Figueres 3+ goals

10%

San Cristóbal 1+ goals

66%

San Cristóbal 2+ goals

29%

San Cristóbal 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)

51%

San Cristóbal (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 36%?"

Figueres scores more

36%

level

29%

San Cristóbal scores more

35%

Figueres at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Figueres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff