Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Figueres vs San Cristóbal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Figueres
Figueres
CANC
14:30
San Cristóbal
San Cristóbal
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 38Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Figueres36%
×Draw29%
San Cristóbal35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Figueres
1.09
San Cristóbal
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 45 home / 108 away

creates per match

Figueres
1.04
San Cristóbal
0.78

allows per match

Figueres
1.36
San Cristóbal
1.15

finishing

Figueres+0.00on par
San Cristóbal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueres ↓

San Cristóbal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Figueres or draw
65%
Figueres or San Cristóbal
71%
Draw or San Cristóbal
64%

Winning margin

Figueres wins by 2+
14%
San Cristóbal wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Figueres 1+ goals
66%
Figueres 2+ goals
30%
Figueres 3+ goals
10%
San Cristóbal 1+ goals
66%
San Cristóbal 2+ goals
29%
San Cristóbal 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Figueres (draw refunded)
51%
San Cristóbal (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueres at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.36 · 45 matches

San Cristóbal away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.15 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueres attack 1.04 + San Cristóbal defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.09

San Cristóbal attack 0.78 + Figueres defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Figueres scores more
36%
level
29%
San Cristóbal scores more
35%

Figueres at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Figueres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Figueres vs San Cristóbal — Match Preview

Figueres face San Cristóbal on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Figueres host San Cristóbal at Estadio Municipal de Vilatenim.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.