Figueirense 0–0 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie C

Figueirense

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Londrina

8/11/2024

Serie C · Round 17Estádio Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Figueirense43%

×Draw29%

Londrina28%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.95

Figueirense

1.23

Londrina

0.95

Figueirense creates 29% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 38 away

1.30

creates per match

1.11

0.79

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Figueirense

1.30

Londrina

1.11

allows per match

Figueirense

0.79

Londrina

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

72%

Figueirense or Londrina

71%

Draw or Londrina

57%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

19%

Londrina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

71%

Figueirense 2+ goals

35%

Figueirense 3+ goals

13%

Londrina 1+ goals

61%

Londrina 2+ goals

25%

Londrina 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

60%

Londrina (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.79 · 57 matches

Londrina away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.30 + Londrina defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.23

Londrina attack 1.11 + Figueirense defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Figueirense scores more

43%

level

29%

Londrina scores more

28%

Figueirense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

Ruan Carneiro

Figueirense · G

9.2

Match Events

17'

25'

37'

38'

45+4'

54'

62'

62'

João Pedro Iseppe← Léo Baiano

62'

Matheus Farinha← Gledson

67'

Gabriel Félix

68'

Ingro← Henrique

68'

Pablo Ruan← Gustavo França

74'

Henrique Rodrigues← Camilo

74'

Tito← Samuel

81'

Cristian← Jefinho

81'

Rayan← João Maistro

81'

Rafael Longuine← Everton

84'

Rafael Longuine

90+4'

Matheus Farinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FigueirenseLondrina

Overview

62%Possession38%

22Total Shots18

1.62Expected Goals (xG)1.49

16Corners5

12Fouls15

Shots

22Total Shots18

4On Target7

13Off Target5

5Blocked6

8Inside Box8

14Outside Box10

Passing

62%Possession38%

348Total Passes198

268Accurate Passes133

77%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls15

6Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

2Offsides2