Figueirense 1–1 Londrina: Result & Stats | Serie B

Figueirense

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Londrina

Henan 36' (pen)

Felipe Marques 45'

6/5/2018

Serie B · Round 9Estádio Orlando Scarpelli (Florianópolis, Santa Catarina)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Figueirense43%

×Draw28%

Londrina29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchLondrina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.99

Figueirense

1.29

Londrina

0.99

Figueirense creates 30% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 97 away

1.15

creates per match

0.79

1.20

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Figueirense

1.15

Londrina

0.79

allows per match

Figueirense

1.20

Londrina

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

Londrina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

Londrina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

71%

Figueirense or Londrina

72%

Draw or Londrina

57%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

20%

Londrina wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

72%

Figueirense 2+ goals

37%

Figueirense 3+ goals

14%

Londrina 1+ goals

63%

Londrina 2+ goals

26%

Londrina 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

60%

Londrina (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.20 · 41 matches

Londrina away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.44 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.15 + Londrina defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.29

Londrina attack 0.79 + Figueirense defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Figueirense scores more

43%

level

28%

Londrina scores more

29%

Figueirense at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

36'

HenanPenalty

45'

Felipe Marques↳ Thomas

46'

Juninho← Jorge Henrique

71'

Daniel Costa← Renan Mota

76'

André Luis← Matheus Pereira

76'

Thiago Ribeiro← Thomas

78'

Jardel← Germano

83'

Marcelinho← Felipe Marques

Figueirense

Londrina

1

3

6

5

2

4

8

▼

Germano

11

Moisés

10

A

▼

Thomas

9

Henrique

7

⚽

▼

1

26

3

14

25

▼

5

28

17

10

▼

Henrique

20

▼

Mota

19

⚽

Henan

Manager: Mílton Cruz

46'▲Juninho←▼Jorge Henrique

71'▲Daniel Costa←▼Renan Mota

76'▲André Luis←▼Matheus Pereira

Figueirense substitutes

37Juninho35Costa9Luis4Trevisan11Amorim12Alisson13Bauermann16Paulo21Raul22Abuda30Cedrón36Sales

Manager: Marquinhos Santos

76'▲Thiago Ribeiro←▼Thomas

78'▲Jardel←▼Germano

83'▲Marcelinho←▼Felipe Marques

Londrina substitutes

21Ribeiro17Jardel19Marcelinho15Matheuzinho14Ramon20Oliveira13Almeida16Lorensi12César18Dudú

Serie B: Figueirense 1–1 Londrina

Figueirense and Londrina drew 1-1 in Serie B on June 5, 2018.

Goals: Henan (36' pen), Felipe Marques (45').

The match was played at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli (Florianópolis, Santa Catarina).

Figueirense vs Londrina — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie B: Figueirense 1–1 Londrina