Figueirense 2–0 CRB: Result & Stats | Serie B

Figueirense

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CRB

Paulo Ricardo 88'

Alecsandro 29'

10/21/2020

Serie B · Round 17Estádio Orlando Scarpelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Figueirense42%

×Draw28%

CRB30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FigueirenseExpected goals in this matchCRB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.05

Figueirense

1.31

CRB

1.05

Figueirense creates 25% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 138 away

1.19

creates per match

0.89

1.22

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Figueirense

1.19

CRB

0.89

allows per match

Figueirense

1.22

CRB

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Figueirense+0.00on par

CRB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Figueirense ↓

CRB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Figueirense or draw

70%

Figueirense or CRB

72%

Draw or CRB

58%

Winning margin

Figueirense wins by 2+

19%

CRB wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Figueirense 1+ goals

73%

Figueirense 2+ goals

38%

Figueirense 3+ goals

14%

CRB 1+ goals

65%

CRB 2+ goals

28%

CRB 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Figueirense (draw refunded)

59%

CRB (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Figueirense at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.22 · 37 matches

CRB away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.43 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Figueirense attack 1.19 + CRB defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.31

CRB attack 0.89 + Figueirense defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Figueirense scores more

42%

level

28%

CRB scores more

30%

Figueirense at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Figueirense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Torres

CRB · M

7.6

Match Events

29'

Hugo

29'

Alecsandro↳ Marquinho

31'

Sidão

39'

Matheus Neris← Geovane Santos

41'

41'

46'

47'

53'

Keké← Marquinho

53'

Diego Gonçalves← Nicholas

71'

Moacir

73'

Paulo Ricardo← Alecsandro

73'

Éverton Santos← Patrick

76'

Ramon Souza← Moacir

84'

Xandão← Gum

88'

Jatobá← Claudinei

88'

Paulo Ricardo↳ Diego Gonçalves

90'

Paulo Ricardo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FigueirenseCRB

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots10

2Corners5

18Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots10

2On Target1

5Off Target7

1Blocked2

2Inside Box8

6Outside Box2

Passing

45%Possession55%

404Total Passes488

339Accurate Passes420

84%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

18Fouls17

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0

Serie B: Figueirense 2–0 CRB

Figueirense beat CRB 2-0 in Serie B on October 21, 2020.

Goals: Alecsandro (29'), Paulo Ricardo (88').

CRB controlled possession (55%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estádio Orlando Scarpelli in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Figueirense vs CRB — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Figueirense 2–0 CRB