CRB 2–1 Figueirense: Result & Stats | Serie B

CRB

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Figueirense

Willians Santana 63'

Rafael Costa 53'

Matheus Pereira 9'

11/24/2018

Serie B · Round 38Estádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

CRB50%

×Draw27%

Figueirense23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CRBExpected goals in this matchFigueirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

0.86

CRB

1.40

Figueirense

0.86

CRB creates 63% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 46 away

1.40

creates per match

0.91

0.81

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

CRB

1.40

Figueirense

0.91

allows per match

CRB

0.81

Figueirense

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CRB+0.00on par

Figueirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CRB ↓

Figueirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

CRB or draw

77%

CRB or Figueirense

73%

Draw or Figueirense

50%

Winning margin

CRB wins by 2+

24%

Figueirense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CRB 1+ goals

75%

CRB 2+ goals

41%

CRB 3+ goals

17%

Figueirense 1+ goals

58%

Figueirense 2+ goals

21%

Figueirense 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

CRB (draw refunded)

68%

Figueirense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CRB at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.81 · 139 matches

Figueirense away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.41 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CRB attack 1.40 + Figueirense defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.40

Figueirense attack 0.91 + CRB defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

CRB scores more

50%

level

27%

Figueirense scores more

23%

CRB at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "CRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

Matheus Pereira↳ Felipe Amorim

15'

Matheus Sales

22'

Romarinho← Jorge Henrique

45'

Éverton Sena

46'

Felipe Menezes← Serginho

53'

Rafael Costa↳ Paulinho

60'

Zé Antônio

63'

Willians Santana↳ Rafael Costa

65'

Marco Antônio← Betinho

75'

Claudinei

77'

Tinga← Rafael Costa

79'

Matheus Pereira

79'

Mazola← Renan Oliveira

83'

Gustavo Poffo← Matheus Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CRBFigueirense

Overview

51%Possession49%

15Total Shots10

8Corners5

19Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots10

4On Target4

8Off Target4

3Blocked2

6Inside Box4

9Outside Box6

Passing

51%Possession49%

380Total Passes371

320Accurate Passes306

84%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls14

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides2

Serie B: CRB 2–1 Figueirense

CRB beat Figueirense 2-1 in Serie B on November 24, 2018.

Goals: Matheus Pereira (9'), Rafael Costa (53'), Willians Santana (63').

CRB controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estádio Rei Pelé in Maceio.

CRB vs Figueirense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: CRB 2–1 Figueirense