FH hafnarfjordur 3–6 Afturelding: Result & Stats

FH hafnarfjordur

3 – 6

HT: 0 – 4

Afturelding

G. Gislason 90+2'

S. Hallsson 87' (pen)

D. Traustason 79'

A. Jonasson 69', 67'

A. Ragnarsson 39'

B. B. Barkarson 38'

A. Johannsson 31', 28'

2/14/2025

League #168 · Group Stage - 2Skessan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

FH hafnarfjordur46%

×Draw19%

Afturelding35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FH hafnarfjordurExpected goals in this matchAfturelding

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.60

2.25

FH hafnarfjordur

2.60

Afturelding

2.25

FH hafnarfjordur creates 16% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

2.50

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

FH hafnarfjordur

2.00

Afturelding

2.00

allows per match

FH hafnarfjordur

2.50

Afturelding

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Afturelding+0.00on par

Total goals

Over86
Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes83
No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FH hafnarfjordur ↓

Afturelding →

0–01%

0–12%

0–22%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–15%

1–25%

1–34%

1–42%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–43%

4–02%

4–13%

4–24%

4–33%

4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

95%5%2.5

86%14%3.5

71%29%4.5

52%48%

Double chance

FH hafnarfjordur or draw

65%

FH hafnarfjordur or Afturelding

81%

Draw or Afturelding

54%

Winning margin

FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+

28%

Afturelding wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals

92%

FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals

73%

FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals

47%

Afturelding 1+ goals

89%

Afturelding 2+ goals

65%

Afturelding 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)

57%

Afturelding (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

78%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

FH hafnarfjordur at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Afturelding away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

FH hafnarfjordur attack 2.00 + Afturelding defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.60

Afturelding attack 2.00 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

FH hafnarfjordur scores more

46%

level

19%

Afturelding scores more

35%

FH hafnarfjordur at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FH hafnarfjordur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

31'

38'

39'

46'

M. Rosenorn← S. Olafsson

46'

O. Sigurjonsson← E. Cogic

49'

S. Palsson

57'

A. Ragnarsson← A. Jonasson

66'

K. Ketilsson← K. Ketilsson

66'

B. Sverrisson← D. Traustason

66'

B. Bjarkason← B. Bjarkason

66'

R. Grondal← R. Grondal

67'

A. Jonasson

69'

A. Jonasson

74'

A. Andresson← G. Sigmarsson

75'

H. Magnusson

79'

D. Traustason

80'

B. Brynjolfsson← I. Olafsson

80'

E. Ingvarsson← A. Purisevic

85'

A. Johannsson← S. Sigurjonsson

87'

S. HallssonPenalty

90+2'

G. Gislason

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff