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Afturelding vs FH hafnarfjordur — Úrvalsdeild 2025

Afturelding
Afturelding
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
FH hafnarfjordur
FH hafnarfjordur
8/31/2025ÚrvalsdeildÚrvalsdeild · Round 21Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Afturelding51%
×Draw21%
FH hafnarfjordur28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Afturelding
2.08
FH hafnarfjordur
1.50

Afturelding creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 27 away

creates per match

Afturelding
1.85
FH hafnarfjordur
1.63

allows per match

Afturelding
1.38
FH hafnarfjordur
2.30

finishing

Afturelding+0.00on par
FH hafnarfjordur+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Afturelding ↓

FH hafnarfjordur →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Afturelding or draw
72%
Afturelding or FH hafnarfjordur
79%
Draw or FH hafnarfjordur
49%

Winning margin

Afturelding wins by 2+
30%
FH hafnarfjordur wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Afturelding 1+ goals
87%
Afturelding 2+ goals
61%
Afturelding 3+ goals
34%
FH hafnarfjordur 1+ goals
78%
FH hafnarfjordur 2+ goals
44%
FH hafnarfjordur 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Afturelding (draw refunded)
65%
FH hafnarfjordur (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Afturelding at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

FH hafnarfjordur away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.30 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Afturelding attack 1.85 + FH hafnarfjordur defence 2.30 → ÷2 → 2.08

FH hafnarfjordur attack 1.63 + Afturelding defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Afturelding scores more
51%
level
21%
FH hafnarfjordur scores more
28%

Afturelding at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Afturelding will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Afturelding vs FH hafnarfjordur

FH hafnarfjordur beat Afturelding 2-1 in Úrvalsdeild on August 31, 2025.

The match was played at Fagverksvöllurinn Varmá Gervigras in Mosfellsbaer.