FF Jaro 2–1 EIF: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

FF Jaro

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

EIF

J. Bushue 27'

J. Brunell 19'

S. Efimov 25'

10/12/2022

Ykkönen · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundJakobstads Centralplan

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

FF Jaro46%

×Draw24%

EIF31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FF JaroExpected goals in this matchEIF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.36

FF Jaro

1.71

EIF

1.36

FF Jaro creates 26% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 80 away

1.95

creates per match

1.46

1.26

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

FF Jaro

1.95

EIF

1.46

allows per match

FF Jaro

1.26

EIF

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

FF Jaro+0.00on par

EIF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FF Jaro ↓

EIF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

FF Jaro or draw

69%

FF Jaro or EIF

76%

Draw or EIF

54%

Winning margin

FF Jaro wins by 2+

24%

EIF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

FF Jaro 1+ goals

82%

FF Jaro 2+ goals

51%

FF Jaro 3+ goals

24%

EIF 1+ goals

74%

EIF 2+ goals

39%

EIF 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

FF Jaro (draw refunded)

60%

EIF (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FF Jaro at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.26 · 81 matches

EIF away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.46 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FF Jaro attack 1.95 + EIF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.71

EIF attack 1.46 + FF Jaro defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

FF Jaro scores more

46%

level

24%

EIF scores more

31%

FF Jaro at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

18'

19'

25'

27'

31'

A. Hotta← S. Kähkönen

45+1'

E. Tendeng

46'

A. Gero

46'

M. Kivikko← F. Okoye

46'

M. Ahadi← K. Moihedja

49'

Y. Daoussi

65'

A. Vidjeskog← J. Myrevik

78'

S. Lindholm← X. Gela

79'

Felipe← S. Efimov

80'

I. Aijo

85'

Bruno← A. Kante

86'

M. Ahadi

90+3'

A. Forsstrom

90+7'

90+7'

90+10'

90+10'

90+1'

A. Bjonbäck← J. Kyöstilä

FF

EIF

1

13

4

2

63

8

▼

Gela

31

⚽

▼

Efimov

77

▼

Moihedja

10

Rashica

6

Sallinen

24

▼

Kante

12

Savchenko

6

⚽

Brunell

27

▼

Kyöstilä

4

▼

Okoye

15

Kronholm

17

⚽

Bushue

21

▼

10

9

8

66

▼

Kähkönen

Manager: J. Wargh

31'▲A. Hotta←▼S. Kähkönen

46'▲M. Kivikko←▼F. Okoye

65'▲A. Vidjeskog←▼J. Myrevik

90+1'▲A. Bjonbäck←▼J. Kyöstilä

FF Jaro substitutes

19Hotta91Kivikko16Vidjeskog5Bjonbäck1Snellman29Wargh3Huldén

Manager: M. Manninen

46'▲M. Ahadi←▼K. Moihedja

78'▲S. Lindholm←▼X. Gela

79'▲Felipe←▼S. Efimov

85'▲Bruno←▼A. Kante

EIF substitutes

70Ahadi14Lindholm17Felipe3Bruno22Madianga19Westerholm21Gerson

Ykkönen: FF Jaro 2–1 EIF

FF Jaro beat EIF 2-1 in Ykkönen on October 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Brunell (19'), S. Efimov (25'), J. Bushue (27').

The match was played at Jakobstads Centralplan in Jacobstad.

FF Jaro vs EIF — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: FF Jaro 2–1 EIF