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EIF vs FF Jaro — Suomen Cup 2018

EIF
EIF
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
FF Jaro
FF Jaroadvanced
S. Ojala 69', 49' (pen)
S. Izountouemoi 70'
R. Vikstrom 60', 32'
J. Myrevik 18'
6/24/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Quarter-finalsEkenäs Sparbank Arena TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

EIF23%
×Draw21%
FF Jaro56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

EIF
1.33
FF Jaro
2.17

FF Jaro creates 63% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

creates per match

EIF
1.14
FF Jaro
2.35

allows per match

EIF
2.00
FF Jaro
1.53

finishing

EIF+0.00on par
FF Jaro+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

EIF ↓

FF Jaro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

EIF or draw
44%
EIF or FF Jaro
79%
Draw or FF Jaro
77%

Winning margin

EIF wins by 2+
10%
FF Jaro wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

EIF 1+ goals
74%
EIF 2+ goals
38%
EIF 3+ goals
15%
FF Jaro 1+ goals
89%
FF Jaro 2+ goals
64%
FF Jaro 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

EIF (draw refunded)
29%
FF Jaro (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

EIF at home — creates 1.14, concedes 2.00 · 14 matches

FF Jaro away — creates 2.35, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

EIF attack 1.14 + FF Jaro defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

FF Jaro attack 2.35 + EIF defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

EIF scores more
23%
level
21%
FF Jaro scores more
56%

FF Jaro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FF Jaro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'
J. Myrevik↳ S. Izountouemoi
19'
D. Agbo
32'
R. Vikstrom↳ S. Eremenko
49'
S. OjalaPenalty
50'
Lucas Kaufmann
60'
R. Vikstrom↳ S. Eremenko
61'
M. Ogungbaro← E. Gunnarsson
61'
S. Kahkonen← F. Valencic
61'
S. Eremenko← R. Polley
69'
S. Ojala
70'
S. Izountouemoi
76'
S. Izountouemoi← G. Sotelo
86'
S. Stenius← N. Mohammed
86'
A. Bjorklund← A. Bjorklund
87'
R. Vikstrom← K. Cissoko
90+4'
A. Forsstrom

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: EIF 2–4 FF Jaro

FF Jaro beat EIF 4-2 in Suomen Cup on June 24, 2025.

Goals: J. Myrevik (18'), R. Vikstrom (32', 60'), S. Ojala (49' pen, 69'), S. Izountouemoi (70').

The match was played at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN in Raasepori (Raseborg).