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Feyenoord vs Almere City FC — Eredivisie 2018

Feyenoord
Feyenoord
FT
6 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Almere City FC
Almere City FC
8/27/2023EredivisieEredivisie · Round 3Stadion Feijenoord

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Feyenoord64%
×Draw21%
Almere City FC15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feyenoord
1.99
Almere City FC
0.83

Feyenoord creates 140% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 37 away

creates per match

Feyenoord
2.35
Almere City FC
0.76

allows per match

Feyenoord
0.91
Almere City FC
1.62

finishing

Feyenoord+0.00on par
Almere City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feyenoord ↓

Almere City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Feyenoord or draw
85%
Feyenoord or Almere City FC
79%
Draw or Almere City FC
36%

Winning margin

Feyenoord wins by 2+
39%
Almere City FC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Feyenoord 1+ goals
86%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
59%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
32%
Almere City FC 1+ goals
56%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
20%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Feyenoord (draw refunded)
81%
Almere City FC (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feyenoord at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.91 · 134 matches

Almere City FC away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feyenoord attack 2.35 + Almere City FC defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.99

Almere City FC attack 0.76 + Feyenoord defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Feyenoord scores more
64%
level
21%
Almere City FC scores more
15%

Feyenoord at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feyenoord vs Almere City FC

Feyenoord beat Almere City FC 6-1 in Eredivisie on August 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Feijenoord in Rotterdam.