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Almere City FC vs Feyenoord — Eredivisie 2018

Almere City FC
Almere City FC
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Feyenoord
Feyenoord
2/25/2024EredivisieEredivisie · Round 23Yanmar Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Almere City FC20%
×Draw21%
Feyenoord59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almere City FC
1.08
Feyenoord
2.01

Feyenoord creates 86% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 131 away

creates per match

Almere City FC
0.92
Feyenoord
2.08

allows per match

Almere City FC
1.94
Feyenoord
1.24

finishing

Almere City FC+0.00on par
Feyenoord+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almere City FC ↓

Feyenoord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Almere City FC or draw
41%
Almere City FC or Feyenoord
79%
Draw or Feyenoord
80%

Winning margin

Almere City FC wins by 2+
7%
Feyenoord wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Almere City FC 1+ goals
66%
Almere City FC 2+ goals
29%
Almere City FC 3+ goals
10%
Feyenoord 1+ goals
87%
Feyenoord 2+ goals
59%
Feyenoord 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Almere City FC (draw refunded)
25%
Feyenoord (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almere City FC at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.94 · 36 matches

Feyenoord away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.24 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almere City FC attack 0.92 + Feyenoord defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Feyenoord attack 2.08 + Almere City FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Almere City FC scores more
20%
level
21%
Feyenoord scores more
59%

Feyenoord at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Feyenoord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Eredivisie: Almere City FC 0–2 Feyenoord

Feyenoord beat Almere City FC 2-0 in Eredivisie on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Yanmar Stadion in Almere.