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Feutcheu vs APEJES Academy — Elite One 2019

Feutcheu
Feutcheu
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
5/15/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 16Stade Olembe Annexe B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Feutcheu40%
×Draw29%
APEJES Academy31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feutcheu
1.17
APEJES Academy
0.98

Feutcheu creates 19% more chances

Season form · 57 home / 67 away

creates per match

Feutcheu
1.09
APEJES Academy
1.01

allows per match

Feutcheu
0.96
APEJES Academy
1.24

finishing

Feutcheu+0.00on par
APEJES Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feutcheu ↓

APEJES Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Feutcheu or draw
69%
Feutcheu or APEJES Academy
71%
Draw or APEJES Academy
60%

Winning margin

Feutcheu wins by 2+
17%
APEJES Academy wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Feutcheu 1+ goals
69%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
33%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
11%
APEJES Academy 1+ goals
62%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
26%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Feutcheu (draw refunded)
57%
APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feutcheu at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.96 · 57 matches

APEJES Academy away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.24 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feutcheu attack 1.09 + APEJES Academy defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

APEJES Academy attack 1.01 + Feutcheu defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Feutcheu scores more
40%
level
29%
APEJES Academy scores more
31%

Feutcheu at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Feutcheu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Feutcheu vs APEJES Academy

APEJES Academy beat Feutcheu 1-0 in Elite One on May 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Olembe Annexe B in Yaoundé.