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APEJES Academy vs Feutcheu — Elite One 2019

APEJES Academy
APEJES Academy
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Feutcheu
Feutcheu
3/20/2022Elite OneElite One · Round 1Stade Annexe de la Reunification

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

APEJES Academy37%
×Draw29%
Feutcheu34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

APEJES Academy
1.12
Feutcheu
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 71 home / 57 away

creates per match

APEJES Academy
1.20
Feutcheu
1.04

allows per match

APEJES Academy
1.07
Feutcheu
1.04

finishing

APEJES Academy+0.00on par
Feutcheu+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

APEJES Academy ↓

Feutcheu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

APEJES Academy or draw
66%
APEJES Academy or Feutcheu
71%
Draw or Feutcheu
63%

Winning margin

APEJES Academy wins by 2+
15%
Feutcheu wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

APEJES Academy 1+ goals
67%
APEJES Academy 2+ goals
31%
APEJES Academy 3+ goals
10%
Feutcheu 1+ goals
65%
Feutcheu 2+ goals
29%
Feutcheu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

APEJES Academy (draw refunded)
52%
Feutcheu (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

APEJES Academy at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.07 · 71 matches

Feutcheu away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

APEJES Academy attack 1.20 + Feutcheu defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.12

Feutcheu attack 1.04 + APEJES Academy defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

APEJES Academy scores more
37%
level
29%
Feutcheu scores more
34%

APEJES Academy at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "APEJES Academy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Elite One: APEJES Academy 3–2 Feutcheu

APEJES Academy beat Feutcheu 3-2 in Elite One on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Annexe de la Reunification in Douala.