Fethiyespor 3–2 Kızılcabölükspor: Result & Stats

Fethiyespor

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kızılcabölükspor

A. Arıcıoğlu 73'

E. Dada 56' (pen)

M. Sevinç 42' (pen)

A. Helvacı 80', 68'

9/11/2019

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundFethiye İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fethiyespor63%

×Draw20%

Kızılcabölükspor17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FethiyesporExpected goals in this matchKızılcabölükspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.06

Fethiyespor

2.21

Kızılcabölükspor

1.06

Fethiyespor creates 108% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

1.75

creates per match

1.00

1.13

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Fethiyespor

1.75

Kızılcabölükspor

1.00

allows per match

Fethiyespor

1.13

Kızılcabölükspor

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Kızılcabölükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fethiyespor ↓

Kızılcabölükspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Fethiyespor or draw

83%

Fethiyespor or Kızılcabölükspor

80%

Draw or Kızılcabölükspor

37%

Winning margin

Fethiyespor wins by 2+

40%

Kızılcabölükspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fethiyespor 1+ goals

89%

Fethiyespor 2+ goals

65%

Fethiyespor 3+ goals

38%

Kızılcabölükspor 1+ goals

65%

Kızılcabölükspor 2+ goals

29%

Kızılcabölükspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fethiyespor (draw refunded)

79%

Kızılcabölükspor (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fethiyespor at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Kızılcabölükspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fethiyespor attack 1.75 + Kızılcabölükspor defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.21

Kızılcabölükspor attack 1.00 + Fethiyespor defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Fethiyespor scores more

63%

level

20%

Kızılcabölükspor scores more

17%

Fethiyespor at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Fethiyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

M. SevinçPenalty

46'

K. Çalışkan← M. Vardar

56'

E. DadaPenalty

61'

A. Helvacı← H. Yalçıntekin

62'

64'

68'

73'

77'

79'

E. Yıldırım← M. Altun

80'

A. Helvacı

Fethiyespor

Kızılcabölükspor

35

33

23

19

97

6

▼

Altun

59

Vurgun

27

▼

Yalçıntek

87

Altıntaş

22

▼

10

74

44

22

77

▼

Kapar

35

Özmen

11

⚽

Sevinç

73

Sarıdoğan

48

⚽

Dada

99

⚽

▼

Arıcıoğlu

61

Şener

75

▼

Karabacak

Manager: M. Ceviz

62'▲F. Üge←▼O. Karabacak

64'▲İ. Sevinç←▼E. Kapar

77'▲E. Gök←▼A. Arıcıoğlu

Fethiyespor substitutes

93Üge34Sevinç19Gök1Kaşlı6Ekinci9Cenik67Caymaz

Manager: S. Görgeç

46'▲K. Çalışkan←▼M. Vardar

61'▲A. Helvacı←▼H. Yalçıntekin

79'▲E. Yıldırım←▼M. Altun

Kızılcabölükspor substitutes

11Çalışkan20Helvacı9Yıldırım53Çolak58Karadağ88Kaya98Hatipoğlu

Match Recap: Fethiyespor vs Kızılcabölükspor

Fethiyespor beat Kızılcabölükspor 3-2 in Türkiye Kupası on September 11, 2019.

Goals: M. Sevinç (42' pen), E. Dada (56' pen), A. Helvacı (68', 80'), A. Arıcıoğlu (73').

The match was played at Fethiye İlçe Stadyumu in Fethiye.

Fethiyespor vs Kızılcabölükspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Fethiyespor vs Kızılcabölükspor