Fethiyespor 3–1 Kızılcabölükspor: Result & Stats

Fethiyespor

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Kızılcabölükspor

A. Akçakın 78'

L. Krasniqi 64'

A. Aras 52'

H. Çelik 48'

9/25/2013

Türkiye Kupası · 2nd RoundFethiye İlçe Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Fethiyespor65%

×Draw19%

Kızılcabölükspor16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FethiyesporExpected goals in this matchKızılcabölükspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.32

1.06

Fethiyespor

2.32

Kızılcabölükspor

1.06

Fethiyespor creates 119% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

1.89

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

2.75

creates per match

Fethiyespor

1.89

Kızılcabölükspor

1.00

allows per match

Fethiyespor

1.11

Kızılcabölükspor

2.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fethiyespor+0.00on par

Kızılcabölükspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fethiyespor ↓

Kızılcabölükspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Fethiyespor or draw

84%

Fethiyespor or Kızılcabölükspor

81%

Draw or Kızılcabölükspor

35%

Winning margin

Fethiyespor wins by 2+

42%

Kızılcabölükspor wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Fethiyespor 1+ goals

90%

Fethiyespor 2+ goals

67%

Fethiyespor 3+ goals

40%

Kızılcabölükspor 1+ goals

65%

Kızılcabölükspor 2+ goals

29%

Kızılcabölükspor 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Fethiyespor (draw refunded)

80%

Kızılcabölükspor (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fethiyespor at home — creates 1.89, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

Kızılcabölükspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fethiyespor attack 1.89 + Kızılcabölükspor defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.32

Kızılcabölükspor attack 1.00 + Fethiyespor defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Fethiyespor scores more

65%

level

19%

Kızılcabölükspor scores more

16%

Fethiyespor at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Fethiyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

48'

H. Çelik

52'

A. Aras

53'

A. Akçakın← B. Kaplan

57'

N. Candoğan← E. Ersin

64'

70'

71'

78'

80'

E. Okur← A. Dere

80'

A. Hürlü← A. Kılıçarslan

Fethiyespor

Kızılcabölükspor

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

Manager: M. Ceviz

53'▲A. Akçakın←▼B. Kaplan

70'▲K. Karışık←▼B. Ataş

80'▲E. Okur←▼A. Dere

Fethiyespor substitutes

AkçakınKarışıkOkurBilginDincerAteşTuran

Manager: H. Şermet

57'▲N. Candoğan←▼E. Ersin

71'▲U. Keskin←▼İ. Şişova

80'▲A. Hürlü←▼A. Kılıçarslan

Kızılcabölükspor substitutes

CandoğanKeskinHürlüMenderesBalıkcıYahşi