Ferroviario 1–1 CSA: Result & Stats | Serie C

Ferroviario

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

CSA

Ciel 37'

Tiago Marques 29'

7/27/2024

Serie C · Round 15Estádio Municipal Presidente Getúlio Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Ferroviario40%

×Draw31%

CSA29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviarioExpected goals in this matchCSA

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.89

Ferroviario

1.09

CSA

0.89

Ferroviario creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 29 away

1.18

creates per match

0.79

0.98

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ferroviario

1.18

CSA

0.79

allows per match

Ferroviario

0.98

CSA

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviario+0.00on par

CSA+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviario ↓

CSA →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Ferroviario or draw

71%

Ferroviario or CSA

69%

Draw or CSA

60%

Winning margin

Ferroviario wins by 2+

16%

CSA wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ferroviario 1+ goals

66%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

30%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

10%

CSA 1+ goals

59%

CSA 2+ goals

22%

CSA 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

58%

CSA (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviario at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.98 · 44 matches

CSA away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviario attack 1.18 + CSA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.09

CSA attack 0.79 + Ferroviario defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ferroviario scores more

40%

level

31%

CSA scores more

29%

Ferroviario at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

29'

37'

45+2'

46'

Gabryel Martins← Mattheus Silva

57'

Calebe← Buga

57'

Robinho← Vitor Leque

59'

Calebe Costa

60'

Vinícius Alves← Israel

70'

Bruno Reis

70'

Álvaro← Brayann

71'

Romarinho← Naldo

76'

Raphinha

82'

Dal Pian← Roberto

82'

Mateus Buiate← Gustavinho

84'

Caio Rangel← Marcelinho

84'

Lincoln← Nicholas

Ferroviario5-4-1

CSA4-2-3-1

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Paulinho Kobayashi

46'▲Gabryel Martins←▼Mattheus Silva

60'▲Vinícius Alves←▼Israel

71'▲Romarinho←▼Naldo

84'▲Caio Rangel←▼Marcelinho

84'▲Lincoln←▼Nicholas

Ferroviario substitutes

MartinsAlvesRomarinhoRangelLincolnGeazeAlissonErnandesGabrielPaulistaWilkerRocha

Manager: Higo Magalhães

57'▲Calebe←▼Buga

57'▲Robinho←▼Vitor Leque

70'▲Álvaro←▼Brayann

82'▲Dal Pian←▼Roberto

82'▲Mateus Buiate←▼Gustavinho

CSA substitutes

CalebeRobinhoÁlvaroPianBuiateThomazellaAllysonTanqueCléberMarquesRodrigues