CSA 2–1 Ferroviario: Result & Stats

CSA

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ferroviario

7/9/2025

Copa do Nordeste · Quarter-finalsEstádio Rei Pelé

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

CSA57%

×Draw22%

Ferroviario21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CSAExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.06

CSA

1.92

Ferroviario

1.06

CSA creates 81% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 13 away

1.70

creates per match

1.31

0.81

allows per match

2.15

creates per match

CSA

1.70

Ferroviario

1.31

allows per match

CSA

0.81

Ferroviario

2.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

CSA+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSA ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

CSA or draw

79%

CSA or Ferroviario

78%

Draw or Ferroviario

43%

Winning margin

CSA wins by 2+

34%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

CSA 1+ goals

85%

CSA 2+ goals

57%

CSA 3+ goals

30%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

65%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

29%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

CSA (draw refunded)

74%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSA at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 27 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.31, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSA attack 1.70 + Ferroviario defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.92

Ferroviario attack 1.31 + CSA defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

CSA scores more

57%

level

22%

Ferroviario scores more

21%

CSA at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "CSA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff