Ferroviario 0–0 Central SC: Result & Stats

Ferroviario

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Central SC

7/27/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Presidente Vargas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Ferroviario55%

×Draw27%

Central SC18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FerroviarioExpected goals in this matchCentral SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.70

Ferroviario

1.46

Central SC

0.70

Ferroviario creates 109% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 37 away

1.97

creates per match

0.84

0.57

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Ferroviario

1.97

Central SC

0.84

allows per match

Ferroviario

0.57

Central SC

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Central SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferroviario ↓

Central SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Ferroviario or draw

82%

Ferroviario or Central SC

73%

Draw or Central SC

45%

Winning margin

Ferroviario wins by 2+

28%

Central SC wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ferroviario 1+ goals

77%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

43%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

18%

Central SC 1+ goals

50%

Central SC 2+ goals

16%

Central SC 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

76%

Central SC (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferroviario at home — creates 1.97, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Central SC away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.95 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferroviario attack 1.97 + Central SC defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.46

Central SC attack 0.84 + Ferroviario defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Ferroviario scores more

55%

level

27%

Central SC scores more

18%

Ferroviario at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ferroviario will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff