Central SC 2–1 Ferroviario: Result & Stats

Central SC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ferroviario

J. Santos 77'

Ruan 39'

Ciel 53'

4/20/2025

Serie D · 1st Phase - 1Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Central SC45%

×Draw29%

Ferroviario26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Central SCExpected goals in this matchFerroviario

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

0.89

Central SC

1.26

Ferroviario

0.89

Central SC creates 42% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 35 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

0.71

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Central SC

1.29

Ferroviario

1.06

allows per match

Central SC

0.71

Ferroviario

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Central SC+0.00on par

Ferroviario+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Central SC ↓

Ferroviario →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Central SC or draw

74%

Central SC or Ferroviario

71%

Draw or Ferroviario

55%

Winning margin

Central SC wins by 2+

20%

Ferroviario wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Central SC 1+ goals

72%

Central SC 2+ goals

36%

Central SC 3+ goals

13%

Ferroviario 1+ goals

59%

Ferroviario 2+ goals

22%

Ferroviario 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Central SC (draw refunded)

63%

Ferroviario (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Central SC at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Ferroviario away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.23 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Central SC attack 1.29 + Ferroviario defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.26

Ferroviario attack 1.06 + Central SC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Central SC scores more

45%

level

29%

Ferroviario scores more

26%

Central SC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Central SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

Ruan

53'

Ciel

77'

J. Santos

Central

Ferroviario

⚽

⚽

⚽

Manager: Leandro Sena

Central SC substitutes

BrandãoJefinhoTauanLeozynhoNatanaelJucaBennêTanakaSilvaEdyLucenaJanelson

Manager: Tiago Zorro

Ferroviario substitutes

HugoRamiresBrayanParaísoGabrielVitorXavierAlvesWillyam

Match Recap: Central SC vs Ferroviario

Central SC beat Ferroviario 2-1 in Serie D on April 20, 2025.

Goals: Ruan (39'), Ciel (53'), J. Santos (77').

The match was played at Estádio Luiz José de Lacerda in Caruaru, Pernambuco.

Central SC vs Ferroviario — Serie D 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Central SC vs Ferroviario